Komparasi Regional 1Q25

Kinerja IHSG 1Q25

Sensitivitas IHSG 2025: 6.250 – 7.770

• Proyeksi target IHSG 2025 direvisi menjadi level 7.000 (vs proyeksi sebelumnya 7.800) dihitung menggunakan asumsi proyeksi EPS 2025 Rp 582/saham dan revisi target fwd PER 2025 12,0x sejalan dengan meningkatnya tensi perang dagang AS-China. Sementara itu, sensitivitas IHSG 2025 berada antara 6.250 – 7.770 merefleksikan target fwd PER band 11.0x–13,0x
• Katalis pendorong target IHSG 2025: 1) Rebound saham sektoral perbankan (utamanya BBCA, BBRI, BMRI dan BBNI); 2) rebound saham sektoral telco; dan 3) rebound saham konglomerasi grup
• Key risk: 1) Faktor Perang Dagang AS-China; 2) melambatnya ekonomi China; 3) fluktuasi harga komoditas global; 4) ketegangan geopolitik global Timur Tengah; dan 5) pelemahan nilai tukar Rupiah.

Outlook Sektoral 2025

Never invest in any ideas you can’t illustrate with a crayon
– Peter Lynch –

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